It was a dry winter across the western US.
Water sources that programs have relied on for years might not be there this summer. Fire danger will start earlier. Along the Gulf and East Coast, hurricane seasons keep getting longer. In East Asia, typhoon tracks are less predictable. Flooding, smoke, extreme heat. The weather is changing everywhere, and it's changing faster than most programs are updating their plans.
In 2023, we surveyed 127 outdoor organizations across North America and internationally. Eighty-six percent reported impacts from extreme heat or humidity that they hadn't experienced three years earlier. Eighty-two percent reported new air quality impacts. More than half had lost access to operating areas entirely.
Only 12% described themselves as proactive in their preparedness.
Most programs are making good adjustments on the ground. They move a trip. Reroute around a closed area. Watch the forecast more carefully than they used to. But those adjustments are living in the heads of experienced staff, not in the program's plans or training.
When I visited two Australian programs that rebuilt after the Black Summer bushfires, both were thriving. And both had something in common beyond good leadership: they had taken what they learned from the crisis and put it into how the program runs, not just how individual people think. The knowledge wasn't walking around in someone's head waiting to leave with them.
That's the gap for most of us.
Pull up last season's schedule. Count every day you adjusted, moved, or canceled because of weather.
Write that number down. Then ask: is that number reflected in your season plans? In your staff training? In what your families read before their kids get on the bus?
If not, that's your starting point.
Stu
P.S. I wrote a longer piece on writing environmental hazard policy for changing climates. If you're looking at your own policies and wondering where to start, it might help.
P.P.S. If you're not already, join the Wilderness Climate Lab group on LinkedIn. We post each week about climate change and resiliency for outdoor programs.